B's Blogs November 17, 2022


Are you reading national news headlines about the health of our local market, and curious how our stats compare? I took a dive into Northstar (aka; The MLS) to bring real data to you.

Let’s begin 10 years ago as we dive into the numbers:

2012 Snapshot

-Median sales price in The Twin Cities Region was $149,900, and today is $360,000; a 140% increase.

-Median sales price in The Chain of Lakes Area (see my blog for the map that defines this area) was $349,000 and is now $550,000; 57% increase.

So- does this mean we in a buyer’s market or wait; a seller’s market?

Let’s first define the term month’s supply: refers to the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current sales pace. Historically, six months of supply is associated with moderate price appreciation, and a lower level of months’ supply tends to push prices up more rapidly:

-In 2012 in the Chain of Lakes Area, we had 13.6 months of supply, and now have 2.8 months supply.

In 2012 the Twin Cities Region had 7 months supply, and now we have 1.4 months supply.

The past two years created an unheard of pattern in interest rates (lower than credit cards), people having to work, live, and school their children from home- created a frenzy of buying + selling patterns. Therefore, it’s not exactly fair to say the market is bad when comparing what is happening right now. What industry experts are looking at is the state of the market in 2019 (pre-pandemic) as a better comparison.

2019 Snapshot

-Median housing price in The Twin Cities Region was $279,900 (compared to $360,000) a 28.6% difference.

-Months supply in The Twin Cities Region was 2.3 (compared to 1.4 months)

-Median sales price in Chain of Lakes area: $465,000 (compared to $550,000 today) a 18.3% change

-Months supply: 4 months (compared to 2.8 months supply today)

So what does this all mean exactly?

Seems to me that the shifts are less extreme, and simply say the dip is aligned with the winter season pattern, and yes; the interest rate has slowed the frenzy buying + selling patterns. With that said, homes are still being bought, investors are buying, and people that need to sell their home are creating strategies to do so now.

Please subscribe to my newsletter if you enjoy staying on top of the Minneapolis real estate market, and please forward to anyone else you think will benefit from this information.

Thanks- Brandyn Negri

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